This was an excellent take at 62% net profit on a full 100 point bet.  I don’t know about you but I viewed this card as not straightforward at all.

The FA Cup reduces the amount of bread and butter matches for us to model so it becomes less probable to pick a winner.

As you know, I believe that my forecasting model is pretty sophisticated.  As the week progresses, and I re-run my model to take into account team news and odds changes, there are usually quite a few tasty forecasts that precipitate for me to shortlist and look at with the microscope.

I was left with the sum total of two forecasts that met my criteria this week (confidence level and customer value).  After racking my brains for a long time, and a few phone calls to contacts up north, I chose correctly.  I would imagine though that a lot of bets went down today. 

The big pre-match pointers for me were:

1.       Hibs’ unbeaten run of 8 before today, how close they are to a top two position in the SPL and the form of Riordan

2.       Falkirk’s 0 2 4 away record and their ongoing injury problems

Falkirk’s Alex MacDonald did come back today, but a shed load of other first choice players continue to be out injured:  Sean Lynch, Mark Stewart, Jackie McNamara, Kjartan Finnbogason, Burton O`Brien and Tam Scobbie.

Falkirk’s woes will continue until a chunk of these guys return.  Even the new signing Toufik Zerara didn’t feature, and I can only assume that the relevant documents didn’t materialise.

I was confined to the house today and made the mistake of listening to the BBC radio coverage of the Hibs’ match.  Whilst they won 2-0 in the end, I have to say it was far from comfortable.  Falkirk were well in it at 1-0 and were pushing for the equaliser.  The Hibees’ defence was all over the place at times. 

However, we got there in the end, unlike Man C at 1.28!

Draw forecasting

We are sitting with one correct from 3 at the moment:

Please remember that this is an experimental bet and very small stakes (if any) are advised.  I won’t be guaranteeing the draw forecasts until there are many more weeks of data under our belts.  If you are betting, the vast majority of your hard-earned should be going on the guaranteed forecasts.  That’s what they are for, to give you consistent returns.

Check the performance table on the website at http://www.turf365.com/blog/category/fixed-odds-performance/.

Watford romped home today to give us a very nice bonus at 1.86.  There were loads of pointers for this one, but I’ve outlined the most important ones below. 

The main aspect of form that interested me was that Scunthorpe has the worst defence in the division, having conceded 32 goals in the last 16 games with just 1 clean sheet.   

Their away goals against average (AGAA) for the season was 2.50 before the game, and this has helped produce a horrendous last 5 away match record of 0 1 4, with the four losses in succession leading up to this game.  They were clearly going to concede goals in this match.

An unusual situation arose with the fixture as both first choice keepers were out for the match.  I thought that this would impact Scunthorpe more than the home team as Watford have the services of Scott Loach, the England U21 keeper.  Josh Lillis is good but quite inexperienced.

The poor defensive record of Scunthorpe was perfect for Heidar Helguson to take advantage, and indeed he did with two goals.

The bookies woke up to the situation as the week progressed and there was a 7% increase in bookies’ probability of a Watford victory from Monday to Saturday morning. This is a 23% decrease in the yield of the odds.  Watford ended up way down at 1.66 just before the KO.

Match odds coming in consistently, during the period preceding a match, is a good indicator of substantial money going on.  However, be wary of this if the information you have does not fit in with the odds movements as the bookies do manipulate the odds to drum up business on a game.  It was clear to me in this case that the odds were moving for the right reasons.

Treble

Our little treble bombed with Millwall bringing down the other two correct of Man U and Chesterfield.

The 11% of the stake total recommended on this bet should have limited your exposure on this one.  Both bets were designed to return over 100% profit but in the end 65% net profit for all bets is not to be sniffed at!  Enjoy.

Draw Forecasting

We are currently sitting with 4 correct out of 6 with one match still to play:

I’ve bet trebles and 4-folds on the 6 matches above, and my bookie will be praying tonight that Bolton don’t draw on Sunday.  He will be paying out a serious amount of money to me if they do!

We hit 4 draws out of 6 last week too:

I am forecasting 6 draws each week and with a target hit rate of 50%.  The performance in the last 2 weeks is a success rate of 66.7%, which is well into serious profit territory for the fixed odds bettors and is also gold dust for the pools players.

Poor finishing at Berwick meant that our main forecast went down with 84 points on it.

This was a real shame as our treble came in to give us a 30 point profit.  I had designed the bets so that an all correct would double our money:

Inverness CT 2-0 Airdrie United at 1.52

Norwich 2-0 Tranmere at 1.38

Russia 2-1 Slovenia at 1.38

I have updated the performance table at Turf365 2009-10 performance.

Here is the low-down on my choice of Blackpool at the weekend.  It was nice to get 100 points onto a winner offering 73% profit.  And as an added bonus we had the excitement of going one down.  Not for the faint hearted but excellent entertainment!

Key points

Blackpool midfielder Charlie Adam was due back after suspension.

Scunthorpe striker Gary Hooper was not listed in the team.  They also had a possible left-back issue with Marcus Williams out injured and his usual stand-in Ian Morris out too.  George Friend made his debut in a difficult place to play.

Blackpool 4-1 Scunthorpe 07.11.09 goals

The stats pointed towards a clear Blackpool victory with 6 match form and head-to-head stats both excellent.  7^th v 19^th is always a nice sign!

The final Turf odds on the home win were 1.61 decimal or 62%.

All subscriptions are half price this season and my customers are raking it in! 

Why don’t you give us a try this coming weekend.  After all, there are 3 reasons to try Turf365:  The best forecasts, the best prices and the best guarantee!