Staking strategy is an extremely important part of building profit in football betting.  I think that there are three key elements to consider:

·         Stake variation

·         Bet ratios

·         Absolute risk

Inter-week variation of stakes

It can be tempting to increase stake levels when the results are rolling in or to dry up totally if you have a bare week.  But the best way to build profit is to control weekly fluctuations in staking by taking a four-week view.

Let’s look at a couple of examples:

Example 1:  Adjusting stakes gradually

As you know, Turf365 advises bets to level stakes.  This is really to provide a level playing field for customers to gauge consistency.  However, you may want to re-invest profits.  How should you do this?

One useful approach to stake management is to use the following simple process:

                Week 1

1.       Start with stipulating a total four-week outlay

2.       Divide this amount by 4

3.       Split the weekly outlay between your bets (e.g. for Turf365 customers apply the advised bet ratios i.e. use the advised points as percentages)

4.       Place the bets

Week 2

1.       Take the original total in 1 above and add the net profit from the last week’s bets

2.       Divide this amount by 4

3.       Split the weekly outlay between your bets (e.g. for Turf365 customers apply the advised bet ratios i.e. use the advised points as percentages)

4.       Place the bets

Repeat on an ongoing basis.

This provides a “rolling average” approach and keeps stakes changing appropriately, and relatively slowly, in relation to the performance of bets (both successes and losses).

Why is this important?

Example 2:  Extreme volatility in stakes week to week

It is key to long-term profit that one does not turn the tap off and on according to each week’s net profit result.  This would introduce a high level of short-term volatility in stakes that would undermine your chances of success and of benefiting from the Turf365 focus on a four-week cycle of profit building.

Take the example of a customer planning to stake 100USD per week:

Week 1:  Customer bets 100USD.  The bets return 195 points showing a customer profit of +95USD and a level stakes profit of +95 points.

Week 2:  Customer bets 500USD.  The bets return zero showing a customer profit of -500USD and a level stakes profit of -100 points.

Week 3:  Customer bets zero.  The bets return 150 points showing a customer profit of zero and a level stakes profit of +50 points.

Week 4:  Customer bets 100USD.  The bets return 180 points showing a customer profit of +80USD and a level stakes profit of +80 points.

Over the four-week period the customer would have made +125USD by betting level stakes (e.g. as advised by Turf365).  However, introducing subjective inter-week volatility has resulted in an actual dollar loss of 325USD to the customer.

This example also underlines the essence of the Turf365 guarantee - that level staking means we can survive a complete loss in one or even two weeks’ bets and still come out smiling!  The clear message is to avoid over-reacting to weekly results.

Absolute levels of stakes

Betting within your means is really the golden rule of gambling.  It is important to undertake a financial sanity check before risking any of your hard-earned cash.

The obvious message here is to operate above temptation and bet only with money you can afford to lose.  Following a reverse, avoid the temptation to quickly recoup losses by increasing stakes.  Instead, reduce stakes accordingly and regroup.

Following the bet advice ratios

I have no doubt that my forecasts are used in all sorts of ways.  This is to be expected of course as everyone has their own mode of operation and favourite bet-types. 

However, it is important to keep to the ratios advised if one is to benefit fully from our focus on making you a profit over the month cycle.  I am extremely focused on this and I adjust the ratios each week to deliver as large a profit as possible for you.

This means if I advise 85 points on bet #1 and 15 points on bet#2 then apply these as percentages to your planned outlay e.g. for a weekly outlay of 60USD:

Bet#1:  $60 x 0.85 = $51

Bet#2:  $60 x 0.15 = $9

 

You can, of course, bet in any way you like, but be aware that this may dilute the effort to get you a big profit over each cycle. 

 

A rational approach helps build consistent gains

Ultimately you will do what you feel is right in any given situation.  However, I believe that a rational approach to setting stakes can help build consistent gain from your soccer betting, especially when there is a guarantee supporting the forecasting.

My summary on stake management is that you should:

·         Adjust stakes gradually week to week according to a four-week rolling average

·         Keep to the advised ratios per bet by applying them as percentages to your weekly outlay

·         Bet within your means at all times by stipulating a safe and realistic four-week total outlay as a starting point

Please feel free to comment on my thoughts above. 

Merry Christmas,

Jim.

 

Just about all of the numbers pointed to a Forest victory in this one, so here is a brief summary:

 

Notts Forest went into this match having gone ten games without defeat, scoring nine goals in their last two home matches.  They have conceded no more than one goal in any match since August. 

 

PNE had gone seven matches without a win before last Saturday’s win against bottom club Plymouth.

 

Preston are good in a scrap but were going to find it tough to score, and hard to control the Forrest young guns.

 

The game panned out the way I thought it would.  Forrest ran all over PNE in periods, with youthful exuberance producing some flowing football as well as a bit of over-confidence.  PNE have a few good players but are just not up to matching a team like Forrest on current form.

 

The result gave Turf365 customers a cracking 73% profit on 79 points bet.

 

Treble

 

Our treble blasted home as well this weekend giving 178% profit on 21 points bet:

 

Gillingham 3-1 Stockport

Aston Villa 1-0 Stoke

Arsenal 3-0 Hull

 

Gills were nailed on against bottom club Stockport who had lost eight straight matches before this one.  I also thought there was no chance of Hull repeating last season’s result against Arsenal.

 

The weakest of the three forecasts was Villa, but momentum is important in football and they are on a brilliant run.

 

You know I like to highlight a dodgy match we steered clear of!  This week’s fly-trap was the Charlton match:  Charlton were 1.83 to beat Millwall but the grounds are less than 5 miles apart!  Imagine the psychological factors at work at both clubs for that one.

 

Therein is an enormous advantage for us:  the bookies have the edge when it comes to seeing the money go on, and they adjust their odds accordingly.  But, this information is fundamentally skewed.  The fluidity in the market, especially in the odds’ movements of the big bookies, means that betting activity skews the probabilities away from actual factors affecting results.

 

We can review the whole picture objectively.  My analysis time is just as much about finding reasons not to select matches to forecast as the other way around.  Incidentally, my headings in the Turf model are form, physical and psychological factors.  Why don’t you have a go at listing the factors you think affect match results?  You’ll find that using these three headings is very useful to get the mind working.

 

The real money is in the weighting of the factors.  This is where Turf365 comes in for you.

 

So, an all correct guaranteed list from Turf365 this week to warm you up in the cold weather!  I think results over the last two weekends underline the importance of betting approximately level stakes over a four-week cycle to even out reverses and gains in order to provide an overall profit in each subscription period.  As you know, I am very focused on this.

 

Draws

 

The draws list was hit by two postponements but we hit one out of the available three matches.

 

I’ve updated the performance table at Turf365 2009-10 performance.

 

You can have access to my top quality forecasting by subscribing.  All subscriptions are half price at the moment.  Why don’t you give us a go?

 

All four of our guaranteed forecasts romped home today giving us a lovely 100% profit on our two bets.  It’s always a great feeling to double-up!

 

Main forecast

 

The team news for the Charlton v Southend match was mixed.  Whilst Youga was sidelined for Charlton, I knew that Frazer Richardson was going to play.  This information was key as losing two main defenders could have caused problems.    The other player replacement was midfielder Therry Racon, in for the suspended Semedo, and this again presented no problems in my mind.

 

For Southend, on the other hand, the loss of Jean-Francois Christophe was important.  This is on top of Sankofa and Freedman who were already missing before this match.

 

On the form side it was 2 v 13.  Charlton’s last 5 homes read 4 1 0, and they had scored 9 goals in their last two home matches.  Southend’s last 5 aways were 1 0 4.  Not good.

 

A report from my own network told me that the team spirit at The Valley is fantastic at the moment.  This is very important when squad players are replacing first choices.

 

All in all, I calculated that the 62% profit on offer was a good deal. 

 

The Turf365 forecasting model produced five top-rated home win forecasts, and I used four of those for your forecasts.  It was interesting that the high number of variables in my model means that it is pretty good at rejecting some potential banana skins.  I had input the Leeds’ match as a derby game, and this psychological factor reduced the likelihood of a win in my model.  And so it was.

 

The other dodgy match with a high bookie probability of a home win was MK Dons, but they had shipped 10 goals in their previous 3 games, not the type of form you’d put your money on.  I was amazed they were at 1.70 (59% probability) with bet365 before the match.  I think the bookies do this as they know some punters bet on odds, not knowledge.

 

Treble

 

We had a tremendous little treble come in at a whopping 3.11 decimal.  Livi were nailed on and the model rated Newcastle and Norwich right at the top of the list of probable homes.  Beautiful!

 

Draw forecasts

 

There has been a mixed performance on draws in the last few weeks and I hit a measly 17% this week (1/6).  Whilst my average is still higher than the actual card average for draws this season, one should play these selections with very small stakes if any.  The idea of forecasting draws is primarily for pools entries.  I play trebles but remember that the draw forecasts are clearly marked as “not guaranteed”.

 

I’ve updated the performance table at Turf365 2009-10 performance.