It was profit all round at the weekend as the main guaranteed picks produced a small 7 point profit from the single bet on Brechin to beat Clyde.

Our draws came in big time with 5 correct out of 6 selections:

Here’s what it meant to one of our happy customers:

Congratulations and many thanks. With Leicester and Coventry drawing this afternoon my £1 Heinz bet with paddy Power on your six draw predictions has returned £1,592.95.  Keep up the good work.

Why not subscribe and try us out for a month or two?  At £15 per month, fully guaranteed, we offer unbeatable prices, service and guarantee.

Both Middlesbrough and Millwall came in with 1-0 wins for us this weekend.

I was surprised that Plymouth came back from a goal down to beat Barnsley and spoil our party.  Paul Mariner is having a positive effect on them.  However, even with Barnsley letting us down the results gave us a level week with a +1.06 profit. 

Like you, I bet with my hard-earned cash so I build in quite a bit of contingency into the bets to look after your money.  As I’m sure you are aware, the bets this weekend were designed such that we would double our money if all three came in, but not lose if one selection bombed.  To me this is important as we are unscathed and thus live to fight another day.

We remain at close to 40% ROI for the season so far.

Performance sheet updated at: Turf365 performance 2009-10

We have treaded water in the last three weeks with 340.88 returned from 300 points bet.  However, we have had no losing weeks, always recouping all of your money.  There is value in this as your finances remain intact even with incorrect forecasts.  The bets are designed with this contingency in mind.

We picked up a very nice 69.52% profit at the weekend on 5 matches correct out of 6 selections.

Notts Forest beating Reading was a nice way to start the sequence.  All of the variables pointed to a Forest victory, not least of which was their goal scoring prowess which sowed a 5 match home goal average of 3.0 and a home against average of just 0.6.  They are a form team indeed.  We made a nice profit of 72% on 20 points bet.

Next up on Saturday we had a tasty little treble.  Again, the three picks ticked most of the boxes in my model, and all of them obliged:

Huddersfield 2-1 Southend

Nigeria 1-0 Benin

Lille 3-1 PSG

I particularly fancied Lille at 1.91, and they duly romped home 3-1.  I had considered making this the main pick of the weekend, and I wish I had now!  Huddersfield’s 14 match unbeaten run and Southend’s measly 0.4 away goals average swung it for me.  Nigeria are 37 places above Benin in the Fifa rankings, and I was expecting a strong rebound after the Egypt game, but it took a Yakubu penalty to split the teams. 

Setting up the matches in a treble meant we had 15 points on at a cracking 4.21 decimal.              

On Sunday we had a live but frustrating Villa - West Ham match.  The Hammers packed the midfield for this one and every ball that went into the middle of the park dropped to them.  Villa had their chances but the game had 0-0 written all over it from the kick off.  Such is life and we dropped 20 points on this one.

There was some very good news to come though as Cameroon beat Zambia – just.  I made the mistake of watching this one too.  I can say categorically that this is the last match I will bet on from this tournament.  It was a shambles and could have gone either way.  3-2 was the final score and what a lovely headed goal it was from Idrissou to win it with a few minutes to go.  Although it wasn’t good for the health watching it I was happy that we picked up a nice 60% profit on 45 points bet.

You can receive our top quality forecasts by subscribing to the service of your choice.  Our forecasts are fully guaranteed and subscriptions are half price at the moment.

Turf365 customers raked in over 100% net profit on a weekend when most tipsters had nothing to say!

I was pleased that the Turf model stood up on a European card.  All the data is available for the Euro “elite” match ups and I am confident that the variables and weightings in the model are sound for any soccer match.  The unknown is the detailed team news but I did pick up some local gold dust from a knowledgeable friend. 

The home form of Roma was WWWWWW before this match, and they were up against a Chievo team blowing hot and cold.  A goal in the first minute was sweet but the sending off of Doni after 11 minutes had me sweating a bit.  We got there 1-0 in the end to land a nice 62% profit on 45 points bet.

Palermo are also in fantastic form showing a 6 match record of WWWDDW.  I thought that their full team would be too much for Atalanta.  It’s 1150 km from Bergamo to Palermo.  The away team must have got out of their hotel beds in Sicily on the wrong side as four yellows, a red and a 70^th minute penalty against snookered them.  1-0 was enough for us to get 73% profit on 45 points bet.

The icing on the cake was Napoli 1-0 Sampdoria to land us a dream treble at 4/1.  Again the form shouted out:  Napoli’s home WWWDDW compared very well to Samp’s dreadful away form of LLLLLD.  Sampdoria had 700 clicks to travel too.  We took 1.87 decimal on offer and landed a beauty.

What was left of the UK card had “red alert” written all over it.  Man U away to a solid Birmingham side was a non-starter as was Arsenal v Everton.  Cardiff were 1.72 to beat Blackpool.

Check the updated performance table on the website at: http://www.turf365.com/blog/category/fixed-odds-performance/.

Turf365  subscriptions are half-price at the moment but this great offer won’t last for ever!

Staking strategy is an extremely important part of building profit in football betting.  I think that there are three key elements to consider:

·         Stake variation

·         Bet ratios

·         Absolute risk

Inter-week variation of stakes

It can be tempting to increase stake levels when the results are rolling in or to dry up totally if you have a bare week.  But the best way to build profit is to control weekly fluctuations in staking by taking a four-week view.

Let’s look at a couple of examples:

Example 1:  Adjusting stakes gradually

As you know, Turf365 advises bets to level stakes.  This is really to provide a level playing field for customers to gauge consistency.  However, you may want to re-invest profits.  How should you do this?

One useful approach to stake management is to use the following simple process:

                Week 1

1.       Start with stipulating a total four-week outlay

2.       Divide this amount by 4

3.       Split the weekly outlay between your bets (e.g. for Turf365 customers apply the advised bet ratios i.e. use the advised points as percentages)

4.       Place the bets

Week 2

1.       Take the original total in 1 above and add the net profit from the last week’s bets

2.       Divide this amount by 4

3.       Split the weekly outlay between your bets (e.g. for Turf365 customers apply the advised bet ratios i.e. use the advised points as percentages)

4.       Place the bets

Repeat on an ongoing basis.

This provides a “rolling average” approach and keeps stakes changing appropriately, and relatively slowly, in relation to the performance of bets (both successes and losses).

Why is this important?

Example 2:  Extreme volatility in stakes week to week

It is key to long-term profit that one does not turn the tap off and on according to each week’s net profit result.  This would introduce a high level of short-term volatility in stakes that would undermine your chances of success and of benefiting from the Turf365 focus on a four-week cycle of profit building.

Take the example of a customer planning to stake 100USD per week:

Week 1:  Customer bets 100USD.  The bets return 195 points showing a customer profit of +95USD and a level stakes profit of +95 points.

Week 2:  Customer bets 500USD.  The bets return zero showing a customer profit of -500USD and a level stakes profit of -100 points.

Week 3:  Customer bets zero.  The bets return 150 points showing a customer profit of zero and a level stakes profit of +50 points.

Week 4:  Customer bets 100USD.  The bets return 180 points showing a customer profit of +80USD and a level stakes profit of +80 points.

Over the four-week period the customer would have made +125USD by betting level stakes (e.g. as advised by Turf365).  However, introducing subjective inter-week volatility has resulted in an actual dollar loss of 325USD to the customer.

This example also underlines the essence of the Turf365 guarantee - that level staking means we can survive a complete loss in one or even two weeks’ bets and still come out smiling!  The clear message is to avoid over-reacting to weekly results.

Absolute levels of stakes

Betting within your means is really the golden rule of gambling.  It is important to undertake a financial sanity check before risking any of your hard-earned cash.

The obvious message here is to operate above temptation and bet only with money you can afford to lose.  Following a reverse, avoid the temptation to quickly recoup losses by increasing stakes.  Instead, reduce stakes accordingly and regroup.

Following the bet advice ratios

I have no doubt that my forecasts are used in all sorts of ways.  This is to be expected of course as everyone has their own mode of operation and favourite bet-types. 

However, it is important to keep to the ratios advised if one is to benefit fully from our focus on making you a profit over the month cycle.  I am extremely focused on this and I adjust the ratios each week to deliver as large a profit as possible for you.

This means if I advise 85 points on bet #1 and 15 points on bet#2 then apply these as percentages to your planned outlay e.g. for a weekly outlay of 60USD:

Bet#1:  $60 x 0.85 = $51

Bet#2:  $60 x 0.15 = $9

You can, of course, bet in any way you like, but be aware that this may dilute the effort to get you a big profit over each cycle. 

A rational approach helps build consistent gains

Ultimately you will do what you feel is right in any given situation.  However, I believe that a rational approach to setting stakes can help build consistent gain from your soccer betting, especially when there is a guarantee supporting the forecasting.

My summary on stake management is that you should:

·         Adjust stakes gradually week to week according to a four-week rolling average

·         Keep to the advised ratios per bet by applying them as percentages to your weekly outlay

·         Bet within your means at all times by stipulating a safe and realistic four-week total outlay as a starting point

Please feel free to comment on my thoughts above. 

Merry Christmas,

Jim.

Just about all of the numbers pointed to a Forest victory in this one, so here is a brief summary:

Notts Forest went into this match having gone ten games without defeat, scoring nine goals in their last two home matches.  They have conceded no more than one goal in any match since August. 

PNE had gone seven matches without a win before last Saturday’s win against bottom club Plymouth.

Preston are good in a scrap but were going to find it tough to score, and hard to control the Forrest young guns.

The game panned out the way I thought it would.  Forrest ran all over PNE in periods, with youthful exuberance producing some flowing football as well as a bit of over-confidence.  PNE have a few good players but are just not up to matching a team like Forrest on current form.

The result gave Turf365 customers a cracking 73% profit on 79 points bet.

Treble

Our treble blasted home as well this weekend giving 178% profit on 21 points bet:

Gillingham 3-1 Stockport

Aston Villa 1-0 Stoke

Arsenal 3-0 Hull

Gills were nailed on against bottom club Stockport who had lost eight straight matches before this one.  I also thought there was no chance of Hull repeating last season’s result against Arsenal.

The weakest of the three forecasts was Villa, but momentum is important in football and they are on a brilliant run.

You know I like to highlight a dodgy match we steered clear of!  This week’s fly-trap was the Charlton match:  Charlton were 1.83 to beat Millwall but the grounds are less than 5 miles apart!  Imagine the psychological factors at work at both clubs for that one.

Therein is an enormous advantage for us:  the bookies have the edge when it comes to seeing the money go on, and they adjust their odds accordingly.  But, this information is fundamentally skewed.  The fluidity in the market, especially in the odds’ movements of the big bookies, means that betting activity skews the probabilities away from actual factors affecting results.

We can review the whole picture objectively.  My analysis time is just as much about finding reasons not to select matches to forecast as the other way around.  Incidentally, my headings in the Turf model are form, physical and psychological factors.  Why don’t you have a go at listing the factors you think affect match results?  You’ll find that using these three headings is very useful to get the mind working.

The real money is in the weighting of the factors.  This is where Turf365 comes in for you.

So, an all correct guaranteed list from Turf365 this week to warm you up in the cold weather!  I think results over the last two weekends underline the importance of betting approximately level stakes over a four-week cycle to even out reverses and gains in order to provide an overall profit in each subscription period.  As you know, I am very focused on this.

Draws

The draws list was hit by two postponements but we hit one out of the available three matches.

I’ve updated the performance table at Turf365 2009-10 performance.

You can have access to my top quality forecasting by subscribing.  All subscriptions are half price at the moment.  Why don’t you give us a go?

All four of our guaranteed forecasts romped home today giving us a lovely 100% profit on our two bets.  It’s always a great feeling to double-up!

Main forecast

The team news for the Charlton v Southend match was mixed.  Whilst Youga was sidelined for Charlton, I knew that Frazer Richardson was going to play.  This information was key as losing two main defenders could have caused problems.    The other player replacement was midfielder Therry Racon, in for the suspended Semedo, and this again presented no problems in my mind.

For Southend, on the other hand, the loss of Jean-Francois Christophe was important.  This is on top of Sankofa and Freedman who were already missing before this match.

On the form side it was 2 v 13.  Charlton’s last 5 homes read 4 1 0, and they had scored 9 goals in their last two home matches.  Southend’s last 5 aways were 1 0 4.  Not good.

A report from my own network told me that the team spirit at The Valley is fantastic at the moment.  This is very important when squad players are replacing first choices.

All in all, I calculated that the 62% profit on offer was a good deal. 

The Turf365 forecasting model produced five top-rated home win forecasts, and I used four of those for your forecasts.  It was interesting that the high number of variables in my model means that it is pretty good at rejecting some potential banana skins.  I had input the Leeds’ match as a derby game, and this psychological factor reduced the likelihood of a win in my model.  And so it was.

The other dodgy match with a high bookie probability of a home win was MK Dons, but they had shipped 10 goals in their previous 3 games, not the type of form you’d put your money on.  I was amazed they were at 1.70 (59% probability) with bet365 before the match.  I think the bookies do this as they know some punters bet on odds, not knowledge.

Treble

We had a tremendous little treble come in at a whopping 3.11 decimal.  Livi were nailed on and the model rated Newcastle and Norwich right at the top of the list of probable homes.  Beautiful!

Draw forecasts

There has been a mixed performance on draws in the last few weeks and I hit a measly 17% this week (1/6).  Whilst my average is still higher than the actual card average for draws this season, one should play these selections with very small stakes if any.  The idea of forecasting draws is primarily for pools entries.  I play trebles but remember that the draw forecasts are clearly marked as “not guaranteed”.

I’ve updated the performance table at Turf365 2009-10 performance.

This was an excellent take at 62% net profit on a full 100 point bet.  I don’t know about you but I viewed this card as not straightforward at all.

The FA Cup reduces the amount of bread and butter matches for us to model so it becomes less probable to pick a winner.

As you know, I believe that my forecasting model is pretty sophisticated.  As the week progresses, and I re-run my model to take into account team news and odds changes, there are usually quite a few tasty forecasts that precipitate for me to shortlist and look at with the microscope.

I was left with the sum total of two forecasts that met my criteria this week (confidence level and customer value).  After racking my brains for a long time, and a few phone calls to contacts up north, I chose correctly.  I would imagine though that a lot of bets went down today. 

The big pre-match pointers for me were:

1.       Hibs’ unbeaten run of 8 before today, how close they are to a top two position in the SPL and the form of Riordan

2.       Falkirk’s 0 2 4 away record and their ongoing injury problems

Falkirk’s Alex MacDonald did come back today, but a shed load of other first choice players continue to be out injured:  Sean Lynch, Mark Stewart, Jackie McNamara, Kjartan Finnbogason, Burton O`Brien and Tam Scobbie.

Falkirk’s woes will continue until a chunk of these guys return.  Even the new signing Toufik Zerara didn’t feature, and I can only assume that the relevant documents didn’t materialise.

I was confined to the house today and made the mistake of listening to the BBC radio coverage of the Hibs’ match.  Whilst they won 2-0 in the end, I have to say it was far from comfortable.  Falkirk were well in it at 1-0 and were pushing for the equaliser.  The Hibees’ defence was all over the place at times. 

However, we got there in the end, unlike Man C at 1.28!

Draw forecasting

We are sitting with one correct from 3 at the moment:

Please remember that this is an experimental bet and very small stakes (if any) are advised.  I won’t be guaranteeing the draw forecasts until there are many more weeks of data under our belts.  If you are betting, the vast majority of your hard-earned should be going on the guaranteed forecasts.  That’s what they are for, to give you consistent returns.

Check the performance table on the website at http://www.turf365.com/blog/category/fixed-odds-performance/.

Watford romped home today to give us a very nice bonus at 1.86.  There were loads of pointers for this one, but I’ve outlined the most important ones below. 

The main aspect of form that interested me was that Scunthorpe has the worst defence in the division, having conceded 32 goals in the last 16 games with just 1 clean sheet.   

Their away goals against average (AGAA) for the season was 2.50 before the game, and this has helped produce a horrendous last 5 away match record of 0 1 4, with the four losses in succession leading up to this game.  They were clearly going to concede goals in this match.

An unusual situation arose with the fixture as both first choice keepers were out for the match.  I thought that this would impact Scunthorpe more than the home team as Watford have the services of Scott Loach, the England U21 keeper.  Josh Lillis is good but quite inexperienced.

The poor defensive record of Scunthorpe was perfect for Heidar Helguson to take advantage, and indeed he did with two goals.

The bookies woke up to the situation as the week progressed and there was a 7% increase in bookies’ probability of a Watford victory from Monday to Saturday morning. This is a 23% decrease in the yield of the odds.  Watford ended up way down at 1.66 just before the KO.

Match odds coming in consistently, during the period preceding a match, is a good indicator of substantial money going on.  However, be wary of this if the information you have does not fit in with the odds movements as the bookies do manipulate the odds to drum up business on a game.  It was clear to me in this case that the odds were moving for the right reasons.

Treble

Our little treble bombed with Millwall bringing down the other two correct of Man U and Chesterfield.

The 11% of the stake total recommended on this bet should have limited your exposure on this one.  Both bets were designed to return over 100% profit but in the end 65% net profit for all bets is not to be sniffed at!  Enjoy.

Draw Forecasting

We are currently sitting with 4 correct out of 6 with one match still to play:

I’ve bet trebles and 4-folds on the 6 matches above, and my bookie will be praying tonight that Bolton don’t draw on Sunday.  He will be paying out a serious amount of money to me if they do!

We hit 4 draws out of 6 last week too:

I am forecasting 6 draws each week and with a target hit rate of 50%.  The performance in the last 2 weeks is a success rate of 66.7%, which is well into serious profit territory for the fixed odds bettors and is also gold dust for the pools players.

Poor finishing at Berwick meant that our main forecast went down with 84 points on it.

This was a real shame as our treble came in to give us a 30 point profit.  I had designed the bets so that an all correct would double our money:

Inverness CT 2-0 Airdrie United at 1.52

Norwich 2-0 Tranmere at 1.38

Russia 2-1 Slovenia at 1.38

I have updated the performance table at Turf365 2009-10 performance.