soccer football betting tips

Archive for the ‘Fixed odds betting’ Category

Football forecasting model for draws provides double the value

Sunday, April 19th, 2009

I have been developing a forecasting tool over the years. The aim is to identify picks with a high probability of success. These can be homes, aways or draws.

One interesting thing about forecasting football matches is that there is a strong tendency to pick clear winners.

This is natural as it is widely believed that draws are the hardest results to forecast. The bookies know that people believe this and set the odds up accordingly with draw odds being relatively attractive.

Wouldn’t it be great to turn accepted belief on its head and bet draws with confidence?

Our forecasting model allows us to do this.

I have been working on the criteria used in our model to refine draw probability calculations. This is proving very profitable for our customers.

I advised 3 correct draws for Saturday 18th April. The yield for turf365 customers was over 600%. Check the performance page for full details.

Our paying customers particularly value our draw forecasts as they can be used as pools picks as well as for customers’ fixed odds bets.

This makes our football forecasting doubly valuable.

You can have a month’s free selections by going to the contacts page.

Lincoln v Luton draw pick makes profit

Thursday, April 16th, 2009

We landed a nice draw at Lincoln at the weekend at 3.40 at bet365. The other two draw picks went down but the strength of the design of the bet meant a small profit of 2% overall.

This is a good example of the importance of ensuring that you play a strong bet on your forecasts.

The forecasts were 3 draws. The bet was 3 singles at 3.00 points and 1 treble at 1.00 point.

Since the odds were all 3.40, this meant that one correct provided a small positive yield.  The point here is that this is excellent insurance on a bet that can produce significant yield if two or three picks come in.

Put another way, it is a bet where 67% of forecasts ditched but we still made a profit!

I have turned the performance table upside down so that you now see the latest matches at the top of the table.  I hope this helps.

You can have a month’s free selections by going to the contacts page.