Charlton 1-0 Southend and an all correct treble produce a fantastic 100% profit
All four of our guaranteed forecasts romped home today giving us a lovely 100% profit on our two bets. It’s always a great feeling to double-up!
Main forecast
The team news for the Charlton v Southend match was mixed. Whilst Youga was sidelined for Charlton, I knew that Frazer Richardson was going to play. This information was key as losing two main defenders could have caused problems. The other player replacement was midfielder Therry Racon, in for the suspended Semedo, and this again presented no problems in my mind.
For Southend, on the other hand, the loss of Jean-Francois Christophe was important. This is on top of Sankofa and Freedman who were already missing before this match.
On the form side it was 2 v 13. Charlton’s last 5 homes read 4 1 0, and they had scored 9 goals in their last two home matches. Southend’s last 5 aways were 1 0 4. Not good.
A report from my own network told me that the team spirit at The Valley is fantastic at the moment. This is very important when squad players are replacing first choices.
All in all, I calculated that the 62% profit on offer was a good deal.
The Turf365 forecasting model produced five top-rated home win forecasts, and I used four of those for your forecasts. It was interesting that the high number of variables in my model means that it is pretty good at rejecting some potential banana skins. I had input the Leeds’ match as a derby game, and this psychological factor reduced the likelihood of a win in my model. And so it was.
The other dodgy match with a high bookie probability of a home win was MK Dons, but they had shipped 10 goals in their previous 3 games, not the type of form you’d put your money on. I was amazed they were at 1.70 (59% probability) with bet365 before the match. I think the bookies do this as they know some punters bet on odds, not knowledge.
Treble
We had a tremendous little treble come in at a whopping 3.11 decimal. Livi were nailed on and the model rated Newcastle and Norwich right at the top of the list of probable homes. Beautiful!
Draw forecasts
There has been a mixed performance on draws in the last few weeks and I hit a measly 17% this week (1/6). Whilst my average is still higher than the actual card average for draws this season, one should play these selections with very small stakes if any. The idea of forecasting draws is primarily for pools entries. I play trebles but remember that the draw forecasts are clearly marked as “not guaranteed”.
I’ve updated the performance table at Turf365 2009-10 performance.