Turf365:  Thoughts on staking

I have received a few requests recently for suggestions on staking.  Over the years I have had a bit of communication with customers around this important subject and share my ideas with you below.

I think that there are three key elements to consider:

• Stake variation
• Bet ratios
• Absolute risk

Inter-week variation of stakes

An obvious key element of success in football betting is the quality of forecasting.  What is less obvious is the importance of controlling one’s stakes to support profit-building.

In the case of Turf365 forecasts you have a very important guarantee that comes with the bet advice.  As you know we guarantee to make you a profit over a subscription cycle of four-weeks’ betting.

To really tap into this benefit it is important to control weekly fluctuations in staking by taking a four-week view.   For example, it can be tempting to increase stake levels when the results are rolling in or to dry up totally if there is a bare week.  However, the real power of the guarantee kicks in at approximately level stakes as the important watershed for profit is at the end of each four-week cycle.

Let’s look at a couple of examples:

Example 1:  Adjusting stakes gradually

As you know, Turf365 advises bets to level stakes.  This is really to provide a level playing field for customers to gauge consistency.  However, you may want to re-invest profits.  How should you do this?

One useful approach to stake management is to use the following simple process:

Week 1

1. Start with stipulating a total four-week outlay
2. Divide this amount by 4
3. Apply the Turf365 bet ratios i.e. use the advised points as percentages
4. Place the bets

Week 2

1. Take the original total in 1 above and add the net profit from the last week’s bets
2. Divide this amount by 4
3. Apply the Turf365 bet ratios
4. Place the bets

Repeat on an ongoing basis.

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This provides a “rolling average” approach and keeps stakes changing appropriately, and relatively slowly, in relation to the performance of bets (both successes and losses).

Why is this important?

Example 2:  Extreme volatility in stakes week to week

It is key to long-term profit that one does not turn the tap off and on according to each week’s net profit result.  This would introduce a high level of short-term volatility in stakes that would undermine your chances of success and of benefiting from the Turf365 focus on a four-week cycle of profit building.

Take the example of a customer planning to stake 100USD per week:

Week 1:  Customer bets 100USD.  The bets return 195 points showing a customer profit of +95USD and a Turf profit of +95 points.

Week 2:  Customer bets 500USD.  The bets return zero showing a customer profit of -500USD and a Turf profit of -100 points.

Week 3:  Customer bets zero.  The bets return 150 points showing a customer profit of zero and a Turf profit of +50 points.

Week 4:  Customer bets 100USD.  The bets return 180 points showing a customer profit of +80USD and a Turf profit of +80 points.

Over the four-week period the customer would have made +125USD by betting level stakes as advised by Turf365.  However, introducing subjective inter-week volatility has resulted in an actual dollar loss of 325USD to the customer.

This example also underlines the essence of the Turf365 guarantee – that you can survive a complete loss in one or even two weeks’ bets and still come out smiling!  The clear message is to avoid over-reacting to weekly results.

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Absolute levels of stakes

Betting within your means is really the golden rule of gambling.  It is important to undertake a financial sanity check before risking any of your hard-earned cash.

The obvious message here is to operate above temptation and bet only with money you can afford to lose.  Following a reverse, avoid the temptation to quickly recoup losses by increasing stakes.  Instead, reduce stakes accordingly and regroup.

Following the bet advice ratios

I have no doubt that my forecasts are used in all sorts of ways.  This is to be expected of course as everyone has their own mode of operation and favourite bet-types.

However, it is important to keep to the ratios advised if one is to benefit fully from our focus on making you a profit over the month cycle.  I am extremely focused on this and I adjust the ratios each week to deliver as large a profit as possible for you.

This means if I advise 85 points on bet #1 and 15 points on bet#2 then apply these as percentages to your planned outlay e.g. for a weekly outlay of 60USD:

Bet#1:  $60 x 0.85 = $51

Bet#2:  $60 x 0.15 = $9

You can, of course, bet in any way you like, but be aware that this may dilute the effort to get you a big profit over each cycle.

A rational approach helps build consistent gains

Ultimately you will do what you feel is right in any given situation.  However, I believe that a rational approach to setting stakes can help build consistent gain from your soccer betting, especially when there is a guarantee supporting the forecasting.

My summary on stake management is that you should:

• Adjust stakes gradually week to week according to a four-week rolling average
• Keep to the advised ratios per bet by applying them as percentages to your weekly outlay
• Bet within your means at all times by stipulating a safe and realistic four-week total outlay as a starting point

Have a look at our performance for 2012 so far!  You can subscribe to our service here.

The forecasting model has been fine tuned for draws and profit and this is producing great results, as you can see below.

Try Turf365 or drop me a line at contact@turf365.com.

Regards, Jim.