Hamburg at home on Saturday evening was our nap of the day at 1.83. 

We advised 90 points on this one, which was 90% of the bet allocation this week.  The smaller bet tilted but the overall yield on turnover of 100 points was a healthy 64.7%. 

The use of a Euro selection was based on two things. 

Firstly, the opening form of Hamburg was impressive, winning 3 out of 4 going into this one. My system churned them out right at the top of all the British and Euro homes.

The other was the British card.  I just didn’t fancy a lot of the matches this weekend.  It looked a pretty mixed bag to me in terms of clear win potential, and that became clearer when my own model produced vastly different probabilities from the bookies’ odds.

Looking at the results, I’m glad I steered clear.  For example, of the 5 shortest priced home teams on the pools card, only 2 were home wins.  Celtic, Charlton and Palace all drew at home with home win odds of less than 1.75. 

Overall, there was a massive amount of draws on the British card. This looked likely to happen and in these circumstances it pays to cast the net a little wider.

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