Hibernian 2-0 Falkirk gives a nice 62 point profit
This was an excellent take at 62% net profit on a full 100 point bet. I don’t know about you but I viewed this card as not straightforward at all.
The FA Cup reduces the amount of bread and butter matches for us to model so it becomes less probable to pick a winner.
As you know, I believe that my forecasting model is pretty sophisticated. As the week progresses, and I re-run my model to take into account team news and odds changes, there are usually quite a few tasty forecasts that precipitate for me to shortlist and look at with the microscope.
I was left with the sum total of two forecasts that met my criteria this week (confidence level and customer value). After racking my brains for a long time, and a few phone calls to contacts up north, I chose correctly. I would imagine though that a lot of bets went down today.
The big pre-match pointers for me were:
1. Hibs’ unbeaten run of 8 before today, how close they are to a top two position in the SPL and the form of Riordan
2. Falkirk’s 0 2 4 away record and their ongoing injury problems
Falkirk’s Alex MacDonald did come back today, but a shed load of other first choice players continue to be out injured: Sean Lynch, Mark Stewart, Jackie McNamara, Kjartan Finnbogason, Burton O`Brien and Tam Scobbie.
Falkirk’s woes will continue until a chunk of these guys return. Even the new signing Toufik Zerara didn’t feature, and I can only assume that the relevant documents didn’t materialise.
I was confined to the house today and made the mistake of listening to the BBC radio coverage of the Hibs’ match. Whilst they won 2-0 in the end, I have to say it was far from comfortable. Falkirk were well in it at 1-0 and were pushing for the equaliser. The Hibees’ defence was all over the place at times.
However, we got there in the end, unlike Man C at 1.28!
Draw forecasting
We are sitting with one correct from 3 at the moment:
|
1 |
ARSENAL |
CHELSEA |
|
3 |
BLACKBURN |
STOKE |
|
9 |
WIGAN |
SUNDERLAND |
|
14 |
CRYSTAL P |
WATFORD |
|
37 |
VALLODOLID |
TENERIFE |
|
38 |
ZARAGOZA |
OSASUNA |
Please remember that this is an experimental bet and very small stakes (if any) are advised. I won’t be guaranteeing the draw forecasts until there are many more weeks of data under our belts. If you are betting, the vast majority of your hard-earned should be going on the guaranteed forecasts. That’s what they are for, to give you consistent returns.
Check the performance table on the website at http://www.turf365.com/blog/category/fixed-odds-performance/.