Watford romped home today to give us a very nice bonus at 1.86.  There were loads of pointers for this one, but I’ve outlined the most important ones below. 

The main aspect of form that interested me was that Scunthorpe has the worst defence in the division, having conceded 32 goals in the last 16 games with just 1 clean sheet.   

Their away goals against average (AGAA) for the season was 2.50 before the game, and this has helped produce a horrendous last 5 away match record of 0 1 4, with the four losses in succession leading up to this game.  They were clearly going to concede goals in this match.

An unusual situation arose with the fixture as both first choice keepers were out for the match.  I thought that this would impact Scunthorpe more than the home team as Watford have the services of Scott Loach, the England U21 keeper.  Josh Lillis is good but quite inexperienced.

The poor defensive record of Scunthorpe was perfect for Heidar Helguson to take advantage, and indeed he did with two goals.

The bookies woke up to the situation as the week progressed and there was a 7% increase in bookies’ probability of a Watford victory from Monday to Saturday morning. This is a 23% decrease in the yield of the odds.  Watford ended up way down at 1.66 just before the KO.

Match odds coming in consistently, during the period preceding a match, is a good indicator of substantial money going on.  However, be wary of this if the information you have does not fit in with the odds movements as the bookies do manipulate the odds to drum up business on a game.  It was clear to me in this case that the odds were moving for the right reasons.

Treble

Our little treble bombed with Millwall bringing down the other two correct of Man U and Chesterfield.

The 11% of the stake total recommended on this bet should have limited your exposure on this one.  Both bets were designed to return over 100% profit but in the end 65% net profit for all bets is not to be sniffed at!  Enjoy.

Draw Forecasting

We are currently sitting with 4 correct out of 6 with one match still to play:

I’ve bet trebles and 4-folds on the 6 matches above, and my bookie will be praying tonight that Bolton don’t draw on Sunday.  He will be paying out a serious amount of money to me if they do!

We hit 4 draws out of 6 last week too:

I am forecasting 6 draws each week and with a target hit rate of 50%.  The performance in the last 2 weeks is a success rate of 66.7%, which is well into serious profit territory for the fixed odds bettors and is also gold dust for the pools players.

Poor finishing at Berwick meant that our main forecast went down with 84 points on it.

This was a real shame as our treble came in to give us a 30 point profit.  I had designed the bets so that an all correct would double our money:

Inverness CT 2-0 Airdrie United at 1.52

Norwich 2-0 Tranmere at 1.38

Russia 2-1 Slovenia at 1.38

I have updated the performance table at Turf365 2009-10 performance.

Here is the low-down on my choice of Blackpool at the weekend.  It was nice to get 100 points onto a winner offering 73% profit.  And as an added bonus we had the excitement of going one down.  Not for the faint hearted but excellent entertainment!

Key points

Blackpool midfielder Charlie Adam was due back after suspension.

Scunthorpe striker Gary Hooper was not listed in the team.  They also had a possible left-back issue with Marcus Williams out injured and his usual stand-in Ian Morris out too.  George Friend made his debut in a difficult place to play.

Blackpool 4-1 Scunthorpe 07.11.09 goals

The stats pointed towards a clear Blackpool victory with 6 match form and head-to-head stats both excellent.  7^th v 19^th is always a nice sign!

The final Turf odds on the home win were 1.61 decimal or 62%.

All subscriptions are half price this season and my customers are raking it in! 

Why don’t you give us a try this coming weekend.  After all, there are 3 reasons to try Turf365:  The best forecasts, the best prices and the best guarantee!

Another great week for Turf365 subscribers as our main pick came in at 1.86 with 90 points on board.

This paid us 167.40 points which provided a profit of 77.40 points.

Our little treble has one to run but is down with Thistle losing at home today.  No big worries here as the bet was just 10 points and this had a minimal effect on our results.

The net profit for the weekend was a handy 67.40 points or 67% yield. 

The Turf365 forecasting model is extremely consistent and our customers are benefiting with substantial gains week on week.

You can also benefit from our winning forecasts by subscribing today.

Subscription prices are half price at the moment and you can pick up our forecasts for just £15 per month (£10 per month if you take a year’s subscription).

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We had another brilliant week at Turf365 with the magic 100% profit level delivered again:

Bournemouth 3-1 Grimsby paid 45.05 points net profit. 

We also had an excellent home win treble that paid 57.81 points net profit:

Huddersfield 4-0 Leyton Orient

Norwich 1-0 Swindon

Dunfermline 3-1 Morton

See the updated performance table at Performance.

The Turf365 forecasting model has been refined over many years and takes account of many variables in football. 

I currently use 19 variables in the model and it has provided profitable forecasts over the last 5 seasons. 

I also review the data in the light of the latest team news right up until late evening on a Friday.

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Another profitable weekend for Turf365 customers with the main pick coming in at 1.62.  We had 95 points on Partick at home and it returned a tasty 153.90 points.

We also had a small investment of 5 points on a home win treble.  MK Dons and Charlton obliged but Leicester drew 0-0 with Derby.  Because of the small stake of 5% of total bets there was little impact on our profit.

Our early forecasts for overseas customers also came in.  Blackpool obliged at 1.83 and we had 100 points on this one.  I’m sure the 83% profit gave our overseas clients something to smile about!

Check out the performance page for the details of all of this season’s bets.

We scored big time again this weekend at Turf365.  Three home victories in the FIFA World Cup European Qualifying matches netted 108.76 points net profit for our customers:

Finland 2-1 Wales 1.90

Austria 2-1 Lithuania 1.75

Montenegro 2-1 Georgia 1.70

We had a 95 points single bet on Finland and they came up trumps.  As I expected, Finland had most of the possession.

They play a patient game, mainly due to the fact their key players are getting on a bit. This strategy serves them well as they wait for their opportunities and are pretty accomplished at taking them.

They won the reverse fixture and I couldn’t see past them.  It has to be said though that Wales missed an absolute sitter at the end that could have drawn it.

It’s always good to get a treble up.  Austria and Montenegro came in to form a nice treble with Finland.  This took us over the magic 100% yield on advised bets.  Please click on the performance section for the details of all bets advised this season.

The bet of the day came in again for turf365 with Raith Rovers winning convincingly at home to Greenock Morton.  

We advised 92 points on this one, at 1.90 at bet365.  I was really surprised at the odds on offer as Raith looked nailed on for the home win on form alone, never mind the added interest of the Morton keeper being out.  The odds had moved to 1.85 by mid-morning Saturday.

I always find it interesting to look at the split of results on odds of >=1.90 versus <1.90.  One would expect more chance of a clear home win as odds decrease.  This is indeed the case. 

But there is less value to be had down there and that’s where it pays to have some information coming in that can give you the edge.  For me it’s my contacts.

For you it can be turf365.

We also advised 3 draws with Barnet v Bradford C obliging at 3.40.

Overall, the net profit for the day was 83.60 points on a yield of 83.60%.  Running yield for this season is 73.50%.

Hamburg at home on Saturday evening was our nap of the day at 1.83. 

We advised 90 points on this one, which was 90% of the bet allocation this week.  The smaller bet tilted but the overall yield on turnover of 100 points was a healthy 64.7%. 

The use of a Euro selection was based on two things. 

Firstly, the opening form of Hamburg was impressive, winning 3 out of 4 going into this one. My system churned them out right at the top of all the British and Euro homes.

The other was the British card.  I just didn’t fancy a lot of the matches this weekend.  It looked a pretty mixed bag to me in terms of clear win potential, and that became clearer when my own model produced vastly different probabilities from the bookies’ odds.

Looking at the results, I’m glad I steered clear.  For example, of the 5 shortest priced home teams on the pools card, only 2 were home wins.  Celtic, Charlton and Palace all drew at home with home win odds of less than 1.75. 

Overall, there was a massive amount of draws on the British card. This looked likely to happen and in these circumstances it pays to cast the net a little wider.

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