Turf365: Notts Forest 3-0 PNE and an all correct treble gives Turf customers 95% net profit
Just about all of the numbers pointed to a Forest victory in this one, so here is a brief summary:
Notts Forest went into this match having gone ten games without defeat, scoring nine goals in their last two home matches. They have conceded no more than one goal in any match since August.
PNE had gone seven matches without a win before last Saturday’s win against bottom club Plymouth.
Preston are good in a scrap but were going to find it tough to score, and hard to control the Forrest young guns.
The game panned out the way I thought it would. Forrest ran all over PNE in periods, with youthful exuberance producing some flowing football as well as a bit of over-confidence. PNE have a few good players but are just not up to matching a team like Forrest on current form.
The result gave Turf365 customers a cracking 73% profit on 79 points bet.
Treble
Our treble blasted home as well this weekend giving 178% profit on 21 points bet:
Gillingham 3-1 Stockport
Aston Villa 1-0 Stoke
Arsenal 3-0 Hull
Gills were nailed on against bottom club Stockport who had lost eight straight matches before this one. I also thought there was no chance of Hull repeating last season’s result against Arsenal.
The weakest of the three forecasts was Villa, but momentum is important in football and they are on a brilliant run.
You know I like to highlight a dodgy match we steered clear of! This week’s fly-trap was the Charlton match: Charlton were 1.83 to beat Millwall but the grounds are less than 5 miles apart! Imagine the psychological factors at work at both clubs for that one.
Therein is an enormous advantage for us: the bookies have the edge when it comes to seeing the money go on, and they adjust their odds accordingly. But, this information is fundamentally skewed. The fluidity in the market, especially in the odds’ movements of the big bookies, means that betting activity skews the probabilities away from actual factors affecting results.
We can review the whole picture objectively. My analysis time is just as much about finding reasons not to select matches to forecast as the other way around. Incidentally, my headings in the Turf model are form, physical and psychological factors. Why don’t you have a go at listing the factors you think affect match results? You’ll find that using these three headings is very useful to get the mind working.
The real money is in the weighting of the factors. This is where Turf365 comes in for you.
So, an all correct guaranteed list from Turf365 this week to warm you up in the cold weather! I think results over the last two weekends underline the importance of betting approximately level stakes over a four-week cycle to even out reverses and gains in order to provide an overall profit in each subscription period. As you know, I am very focused on this.
Draws
The draws list was hit by two postponements but we hit one out of the available three matches.
I’ve updated the performance table at Turf365 2009-10 performance.
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