Watford romped home today to give us a very nice bonus at 1.86.  There were loads of pointers for this one, but I’ve outlined the most important ones below. 

 

The main aspect of form that interested me was that Scunthorpe has the worst defence in the division, having conceded 32 goals in the last 16 games with just 1 clean sheet.   

 

Their away goals against average (AGAA) for the season was 2.50 before the game, and this has helped produce a horrendous last 5 away match record of 0 1 4, with the four losses in succession leading up to this game.  They were clearly going to concede goals in this match.

 

An unusual situation arose with the fixture as both first choice keepers were out for the match.  I thought that this would impact Scunthorpe more than the home team as Watford have the services of Scott Loach, the England U21 keeper.  Josh Lillis is good but quite inexperienced.

 

The poor defensive record of Scunthorpe was perfect for Heidar Helguson to take advantage, and indeed he did with two goals.

 

The bookies woke up to the situation as the week progressed and there was a 7% increase in bookies’ probability of a Watford victory from Monday to Saturday morning. This is a 23% decrease in the yield of the odds.  Watford ended up way down at 1.66 just before the KO.

 

Match odds coming in consistently, during the period preceding a match, is a good indicator of substantial money going on.  However, be wary of this if the information you have does not fit in with the odds movements as the bookies do manipulate the odds to drum up business on a game.  It was clear to me in this case that the odds were moving for the right reasons.

 

Treble

 

Our little treble bombed with Millwall bringing down the other two correct of Man U and Chesterfield.

 

The 11% of the stake total recommended on this bet should have limited your exposure on this one.  Both bets were designed to return over 100% profit but in the end 65% net profit for all bets is not to be sniffed at!  Enjoy.

 

Draw Forecasting

 

We are currently sitting with 4 correct out of 6 with one match still to play:

 

2	BOLTON	BLACKBURN
15	MIDDLESBROUGH	NOTTM F
20	BRENTFORD	WALSALL
31	BARNET	PORT VALE
36	LINCOLN	GRIMSBY
38	MORECAMBE	CHELTENHAM

 

I’ve bet trebles and 4-folds on the 6 matches above, and my bookie will be praying tonight that Bolton don’t draw on Sunday.  He will be paying out a serious amount of money to me if they do!

 

We hit 4 draws out of 6 last week too:

 

3	CHARLTON	v	MK DONS
15	BARNET	v	HEREFORD
20	LINCOLN	v	CHELTENHAM
26	DUNDEE	v	QOS
36	MONTROSE	v	STRANRAER
44	RUSHDEN	v	HISTON

 

I am forecasting 6 draws each week and with a target hit rate of 50%.  The performance in the last 2 weeks is a success rate of 66.7%, which is well into serious profit territory for the fixed odds bettors and is also gold dust for the pools players.

This entry was posted on Sunday, November 22nd, 2009 at 12:58 am and is filed under Fixed odds betting. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.